A System Dynamics Model for the Sustainability of Naval Capabilities Toward Indonesia Maritime Security

Abstract

Sustainability in the development of naval capabilities plays a crucial role to ensure national maritime security in future wars. This study seeks to provide an analysis of the sustainability framework for the enhancement of naval capabilities in the context of national maritime security. This study uses descriptive statistics, supported by the system dynamics (SD) model. Eight personnel, including academicians and practitioners, participated in the research, which was conducted between January 2022 and February 2023. Based on the study findings, it is projected that the value of naval capabilities will range from 3.77 to 3.78 between 2022 and 2027, indicating a highly capable status (level 4). However, there will be a slight decline in naval capabilities from 2022 to 2024, and naval capabilities will dynamically experience a slight decline. Subsequently, between 2024 and 2027, the naval capability is predicted to slowly increase, remaining within the range of 3.78 (highly capable). The development and establishment of naval capabilities are influenced by various factors, including dynamic and uncertain external and internal threats. Nonetheless, through the strengthening of capabilities, the addition of main equipment and weapon systems, and strategic operational patterns, there will be a gradual enhancement of defense capabilities. This, in turn, will facilitate the promotion and preservation of territorial claims and national interests, ultimately upholding national maritime security.