Impact Assessment of Minimum Essential Force (MEF) Achievement of Indonesian Navy Using Integrated Delphi-AHP-TOPSIS

Abstract

This research aims to evaluate the progress of the Indonesian Navy's Minimum Essential Force (MEF) initiative, focusing specifically on its impact within the North Natuna Sea region. Utilizing a qualitative descriptive statistical approach, the research integrates the Delphi-Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to support its analysis. The impact of achieving the MEF is dissected into three main criteria: Deterrent Effect, Bargaining Power, and Maritime Security Threat. The research identified 4 sub-factors for both Deterrent Effect and Bargaining Power, and 6 sub-factors for Maritime Security Threat, all determined through consensus among expert panelists. In assessing the impact of MEF achievements using the 3D model, five strategies were pinpointed for their significantly high and low impacts. The strategy to increase the allocation of the state budget for the maritime sector (S1) scored the highest, whereas the strategy involving universities in defense technology research and Transfer of Technology (TOT) purchases (S4) scored the lowest.Sensitivity analysis revealed that the weights of certain factors, notably military capability and diplomatic skill sub-factors, significantly influence the ranking of strategies. These sub-factors were particularly sensitive to changes in weight. Despite this, the overall model is deemed robust, as evidenced by the minimal variation in strategy rankings under different scenarios.