Understanding and Predicting Maritime Industry Cyclicality

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Published: Jan 1, 2026
Keywords:
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) maritime transportation marine insurance cyclicality risk management risk modelling international trade

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Selin Sarı
Boğaziçi University
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3612-2141
Gozde Erhan
Bogazici University. Turkey
U. Zeynep Ata
Boğaziçi University
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3612-2141

Abstract

Maritime transportation and insurance play pivotal roles in international trade. Both maritime and insurance industries are observed to follow cyclical patterns with recurrent upward and downward movements. This study examines the cyclicality of maritime freight markets and marine insurance premiums, assessing whether their cycles are synchronized. Using data from 1996 to 2019, including Baltic Dry Index (BDI) values and global hull insurance premiums, findings confirm significant cyclicality in both markets. Results indicate that hull insurance premium cycles lag freight market cycles by two years, with a common cycle length of 16 years. This synchronization has implications for risk management and policy-making.

Article Details

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Vol. 22 No. 3 (2025)
Section
Articles

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Author Biographies

Selin Sarı, Boğaziçi University

Selin Sarı is a graduate of Bogazici University, International Trade Management MA program. She has a bachelor’s degree from Istanbul Technical University, Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering. After her seagoing experience onboard commercial cargo vessels, she continued her career in Marine Insurance. 

Gozde Erhan, Bogazici University. Turkey

Gözde Erhan is an Associate Professor of Finance at Bogazici University Department of International Trade, Istanbul, Turkey. She has taught Business Mathematics, Applied Statistics, Financial Accounting, Managerial Accounting, Risk and Insurance, Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments, Valuation, Corporate Financial Analysis and Trade Finance courses at the undergraduate level and International Financial Management at the graduate level. Her academic research interests include risk management, stochastic modelling, agricultural risk modelling, corporate governance and responsible investment. Her research appears in journals such as Journal of Risk Model Validation, Finance a Úver (Czech Journal of Economics and Finance), Journal of Agricultural Economics, Tourism Economics, International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, The International Journal of Business and Finance Research. She has won outstanding research awards and best paper awards from institutions like International Academy of Business and Public Administration, World Business Institute, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, The Scientific and Research Council of Turkey and Bogazici University.

U. Zeynep Ata, Boğaziçi University

U. Zeynep Ata is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management at Bogazici University Department of International Trade, Istanbul, Turkey. Dr. Ata has a degree in Industrial Engineering from Istanbul Technical University. She completed her MBA degree at METU and PhD in Management at Bogaziçi University. Dr. Ata teaches undergraduate and graduate level courses in International Logistics, Supply Chain Management and Statistics. Her current research interests include Supply Chain Management, Production and Operations Management, Decision Processes and Models in Logistics and Sustainable Supply Chains.