Quantitative Performance Assessment of Humanitarian Maritime Corridors: A Multi-Level Effectiveness Framework Applied to the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Abstract

Maintaining maritime trade routes operational during armed conflicts poses complex challenges requiring creative mechanisms to balance humanitarian needs with maritime security issues. The article develops and applies a comprehensive quantitative model for measuring the performance of humanitarian maritime corridors, using the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) as a case study. The multi-level effectiveness framework assesses the performance of the corridor on operational, strategic, and humanitarian levels based on measurable indicators. These include vessel transit volumes, assessing cargo throughput, inspection efficiency, security incident frequency, and market price stabilization. Each indicator shall be backed by quantitative measures for performance assessment. BSGI was successful, albeit with certain limitations; 1,139 vessels that carried about 32.9 million metric tons of grain to 45 countries were allowed passage. It was also effective in contributing to a 15.6% decline of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index during this time. The study found that technical and operational factors alone do not determine success for humanitarian maritime corridors. In contrast, institutional design and optimization of the procedures render substantial impacts on the effectiveness of humanitarian maritime corridors as long as there is political will. However, operational limitations such as ineffectiveness of inspection, diplomatic weakness, and dependence on voluntary cooperation damaged performance and finally led to their closure, in July 2023.