Increase in the geometric probability of collision with cetaceans in relation to the decrease in speed of merchant ships

Abstract

Collisions between ships and cetaceans are a major environmental concern, as they result in the loss of umbrella species, causing significant environmental damage. Several studies relating vessel speed to lethality, reduced collision probability, increased response capacity, and other factors have been conducted to date. To further our understanding of the interaction between different types of vessels and cetaceans, this document calculates the geometric probability of collision between vessels and cetaceans that may appear within their surveillance area while in navigation route, applying nautical principles of naval kinematics and maneuvering board. It also provides the equation for calculating the horizontal surveillance angle, considering the probability of a collision with a cetacean. Finally, it provides a calculation of the maximum increase factor of the probability of collision with respect to the reduction of speed and calculates a vulnerability index for each vessel, based on the probability of collision within the cetacean-protected area.