Principles And Patterns of Cause-Effect Relationship Formation in The System of Safe Ship Operation

Abstract

Among the key factors affecting vessel safety are weather conditions, crew competence, vessel condition, cargo specifics, port infrastructure and operational safety protocols. This study explores the tangled web of causal relationships within ship operations safety. A systematic evaluation is conducted, by assigning weighting factors to certain factors to determine their overall impact on the safety of each operation and identifying their different manifestations and their differential impact on the safety of ship operations. A probabilistic analysis was used, estimating the safety probabilities for each operation given the potential outcomes of these factors. The results emphasize the multidimensional nature of operational safety in marine environments and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the interrelationship of factors affecting safety. This study contributes to improved safety protocols by elucidating the complex interrelationships that determine the safety of vessel operations, thereby facilitating informed decision-making and risk management strategies in maritime operations.