Assessment of Flood Risk Hotspots in Port Areas: A Multi-Hazard Approach For Antalya Port

Abstract

Ports are critical infrastructures highly vulnerable to river and coastal floods, exacerbated by climate change. This study presents a high-resolution, quantitative multi-hazard damage assessment for a representative Mediterranean port, Antalya. An established land-use-based depth-damage function methodology was integrated with local data, including river flood maps for nine return periods (10- to 500-year) and coastal flood scenarios under sea-level rise projections. The results reveal a multi-billion Euro risk profile dominated by high-frequency events; over 70% of the maximum potential damage from a 500-year flood (€4.59 billion) already occurs during a frequent 10-year event. Damage is overwhelmingly concentrated (>97%) in industrial and commercial zones. Hotspot analysis confirmed that this risk is not random, identifying statistically significant and persistent high-damage clusters in the port's northern industrial areas. These findings suggest port risk profiles may be characterized by high-frequency, high-impact events rather than rare catastrophes, providing an evidence-based foundation for spatially prioritizing adaptation strategies.