System Dynamics Modeling for Smart Defense System of the Archipelago Sea Defense in Indonesia

Abstract

The modeling of Smart Defense for the Indonesian Maritime Defense Strategy is determined by the influence and interconnected interaction among various aspects as a complex system. Hence, a comprehensive analysis is needed to evaluate the Smart Defense for the Indonesian Sea Defense Strategy from the perspectives of Technology, Operational Strategy, Indonesian Navy Posture, and Threat Perception. To assess the value of Smart Defense capabilities, a dynamic model is developed to project the value of the Indonesian Maritime Defense Strategy over a period of five years. In this paper, the researcher constructs a model using a Dynamic Systems approach integrated with the Delphi method to determine the influential criteria for smart defense in the maritime defense strategy, and the Fuzzy Weighting method is employed to obtain the value of smart defense capabilities based on the aspects of Technology, Operational Strategy, Indonesian Navy Posture, and Threat Perception. The formulated model and simulation results using the System Dynamic approach reveal that the value Smart Defense of the Archipelago Sea Defense Strategy is projected to be 86.8% (Capable/Excellent) in the year 2023 and is expected to increase to 88.8% (Capable/Excellent) by the fifth year, entering 2028. Thus, based on these findings, the Indonesian Maritime Defense Strategy's Smart Defense is still classified as Capable/Excellent