Does e-Government Readiness Drive Maritime Connectivity and TradePerformance? Panel Evidence from Indian Ocean and Gulf Economies

Resumen

This study examines whether national e-government capability, measured by the United Nations Online Services Index (OSI), is associated with maritime trade connectivity and container port performance. Three internationally recognised datasets are combined: the OSI from the UN e-Government Survey,
the UNCTAD Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), and the World Bank and S&P Global Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), supplemented with World Development Indicators for economic size. A country-year panel of 1,071 observations spanning 124 economies and nine biennial survey waves from 2008 to 2024 is constructed. Two-way fixed-effects regressions with country and year effects are estimated for the logarithm of exports of goods and services and for the logarithm of LSCI.
Country-level cross-sectional models examine long-run associations using time-averaged variables. A port-year panel of 936 observations across 356 ports in 100 economies from 2020 to 2024 is used in port fixed-effects and cross-sectional models for CPPI. The results are consistent across all specifications.
In the country panel, OSI shows no statistically significant association with either exports (coefficient: −0.018, 95% CI: −0.215 to 0.179, p = 0.859) or LSCI (coefficient: −0.075, p = 0.445) once GDP per capita and population are controlled for. In the cross-sectional models, LSCI has a positive and significant relationship with long-run export levels (coefficient: 0.184, p = 0.036), while OSI remains insignificant. At port level, OSI is not robustly associated with CPPI in either the fixed-effects panel (p = 0.067) or the 2024 cross-section (p = 0.226). These patterns hold in the sub-sample of 19 Indian Ocean and Gulf economies. The findings suggest that generic national e-government indices are not reliable proxies for maritime trade performance or shipping connectivity once structural economic determinants are taken into account. Policy assessments of digital readiness in port and trade sectors should draw on sector-specific indicators of maritime and logistics digitalisation.